Naval的Podcast不靠運氣致富系列(12):與理性的樂觀主義者合作
Don’t partner with cynics and pessimists; their beliefs are self-fulfilling
不要與憤世嫉俗的人和悲觀主義者合作；他們的信念是自我實現的
Don’t partner with pessimists
不要與悲觀主義者合夥
Nivi: Let’s do this last tweet. You said, “Don’t partner with cynics, and pessimists. Their beliefs are self-fulfilling.”
Nivi：讓我們做最後一條推文。您說：“不要與憤世嫉俗的人和悲觀主義者合作。他們的信念是自我實現的。”
Naval: Yes. Essentially, to create things, you have to be a rational optimist. Rational in the sense that you have to see the world for what it really is. And yet you have to be optimistic about your own capabilities, and your capability to get things done.
We all know people who are consistently pessimistic, who will shoot down everything. Everyone in their life has the helpful critical guy, right? He thinks he’s being helpful, but he’s actually being critical, and he’s a downer on everything.
Naval：是的。本質上，要創造事物，您必須是理性的樂觀主義者。從某種意義上說，您必須理性地了解世界。但是，您必須對自己的能力以及完成工作的能力保持樂觀。
我們都知道一向持悲觀態度的人，他們會擊落一切。他們生活中的每個人都有樂於助人的關鍵人物，對嗎？他認為自己很有幫助，但實際上他批評，對所有事情都滿滿負面的想法。
That person will not only never do anything great in their lives, they’ll prevent other people around them from doing something great. They think their job is to shoot holes in things. And it’s okay to shoot holes in things as long as you come up with a solution.
There’s also the classic military line, “Either lead, follow, or get out of the way.” And these people want a fourth option, where they don’t want to lead, they don’t want to follow, but they don’t want to get out of the way. They want to tell you why the thing is not going to work.
這個人不僅將永遠不會做任何偉大的事情，還會阻止周圍的其他人做偉大的事情。他們認為自己的工作是在事物上打孔。可以在事物上開孔，但您要提出解決方案。
還有一條經典的軍事路線，“要麼領導、跟隨，要麼閃開。”這些人想要第四種選擇，他們不想領導，他們不想跟隨，他們不想走開。他們想告訴你為什麼這件事行不通。
And all the really successful people I know have a very strong action bias. They just do things. The easiest way to figure out if something is viable or not is by doing it. At least do the first step, and the second step, and the third, and then decide.
So, if you want to be successful in life, creating wealth, or having good relationships, or being fit, or even being happy, you need to have an action bias towards getting what you want.
我認識的所有真正成功的人都有強烈的行動偏見。他們只是做事。確定某事是否可行的最簡單方法是這樣做。至少先執行第一步，第二步和第三步，然後再決定。
因此，如果您想在生活中成功，創造財富，擁有良好的人際關係，保持健康甚至幸福，那麼您就需要擁有傾向於行動來獲得想要的東西。
Partner with rational optimists
與理性樂觀主義者合作
And you have to be optimistic about it. Not irrationally. You know, there’s nothing worse than someone who is foolhardy and chasing something that’s not worth it.
That’s why I say rational optimist. But you have to be rational. Know all the pitfalls. Know the downsides, but still keep your chin up.
而且您必須對此保持樂觀。並非非理性。要知道，沒有什麼比一個蠻幹，追求不值得的人更糟糕的了。
這就是為什麼我說理性樂觀主義者。但是你必須要理性。了解所有陷阱。知道不利之處，但請保持警惕。
You’ve got one life on this planet. Why not try to build something big? This is the beauty of Elon Musk, and why I think he inspires so many people, it’s just because he takes on really, really big audacious tasks. And he provides an example for people to think big.
And it takes a lot of work to build even small things. I don’t think the corner grocery store owner is working any less hard than Elon Musk, or pouring any less sweat and toil into it. Maybe even more.
您在這個星球上擁有一生。為什麼不嘗試建造大型建築？這就是埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）的美麗，也是我認為他能激發如此眾多人的原因，這僅僅是因為他承擔著非常非常大的任務。他為人們提供了一個有遠見的榜樣。
構建甚至很小的東西也需要大量的工作。我認為雜貨店的老闆的努力不一定比埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）少，也可能為雜貨店的付出不一定比Elon對Tesla, SpaceX 更少的汗水和辛勞。也許更多。
But for whatever reason, education, circumstance, they didn’t get the chance to think as big, so the outcome is not as big. So, it’s just better to think big. Obviously, rationally, within your means, stay optimistic.
The cynics and the pessimists, what they’re really saying, it’s unfortunate, but they’re basically saying, “I’ve given up. I don’t think I can do anything. And so the world to me just looks like a world where nobody can do anything. And so why should you go do something because if you fail, then I’m right, which is great. But if you succeed, then you just make me look bad.”
但是，無論出於何種原因，無論是受教育程度還是環境，他們都沒有機會去思考那麼大，因此結果並沒有那麼大。所以，最好大膽思考。顯然，在您力所能及的範圍內，保持樂觀。
憤世嫉俗的人和悲觀主義者，他們真正說的是不幸的，但他們基本上是在說：“我已經放棄了。我認為我無能為力。因此，對我而言，這個世界看起來就像是一個沒人能做任何事情的世界。那為什麼要去做些什麼，因為如果失敗了，那我是對的，那很棒。但是，如果你成功了，那會讓我看起來難堪。”
We descended from pessimists
我們來自悲觀主義者
Nivi: Yes, it’s probably better to be an irrational optimist, then it is to be a rational cynic.
Nivi：是的，成為一個非理性的樂觀主義者比成為一個理性的憤世嫉俗者好。
Naval: There’s a completely rational frame on why you should be an optimist. Historically, if you go back 2,000 years, 5,000 years, 10,000 years, two people are wandering through a jungle, they hear a tiger. One’s an optimist, and says, “Oh, it’s not headed our way.” The other one says, “I’m a pessimist, I’m out of here.” And the pessimist runs and survives, and the optimist gets eaten.
Naval：關於為什麼要成為一個樂觀主義者有一個完全理性的框架。從歷史上看，如果您追溯2000年，5,000年，10,000年，兩個人在叢林中徘徊，他們會聽到老虎的聲音。一個人很樂觀，說：“哦，這不是我們前進的方向。”另一個人說：“我是悲觀主義者，我不在這裡。”悲觀主義者奔走生存，樂觀主義者被吃掉。
So, we’re descended from pessimists. We’re genetically hardwired to be pessimists. But modern society is far, far safer. There are no tigers wandering around the street. It’s very unlikely that you will end up in total ruin, although you should avoid total ruin.
Much more likely that the upside is unlimited, and the downside is limited. So, adapting for modern society means overriding your pessimism, and taking slightly irrationally optimistic bets because the upside is unlimited if you start the next SpaceX, or Tesla, or Uber, you can make billions of dollars of value for society, and for yourself, and change the world.
因此，我們來自悲觀主義者。從基因上講，我們是悲觀主義者。但是現代社會遠非如此。街上沒有老虎徘徊。儘管您應該避免完全破產，但最終破產的可能性很小。
上漲的可能是無限的，而下跌的可能是有限的。因此，適應現代社會意味著壓倒您的悲觀情緒，並進行一些非理性的樂觀下注，因為如果您啟動下一個SpaceX，Tesla或Uber，上漲空間是無限的，那麼您可以為社會和自己創造數十億美元的價值，並改變世界。
And if you fail, what’s the big deal? You lost a few million dollars of investor money, and they’ve got plenty more, and that’s the bet they take on the chances that you will succeed.
It made sense to be pessimistic in the past. It makes sense to be optimistic today, especially if you’re educated and living in a First World country. Even a Third World country. I actually think the economic opportunities in Third World countries are much larger.
如果失敗了，有什麼大不了的？您損失了數百萬美元的投資者資金，他們還有更多的錢，這就是他們押注您成功的機會。
過去感到悲觀是有道理的。今天保持樂觀是有道理的，特別是如果您受過教育並生活在第一世界國家/地區。甚至是第三世界國家。我實際上認為第三世界國家的機會要多得多。
The one thing you have to avoid is the risk of ruin. Ruin means stay out of jail. So, don’t do anything that’s illegal. It’s never worth it to wear an orange jumpsuit. And stay out of total catastrophic loss. That could mean that you stay out of things that could be physically dangerous, hurt your body.
You have to watch your health. And stay out of things that can cause you to lose all of your capital, all of your savings. So, don’t gamble everything on one go. But take rationally optimistic bets with big upside.
您必須避免的一件事是毀滅的風險。毀滅意味著遠離監獄。因此，請勿做任何非法的事情。穿橙色連身褲絕對不值得。並避免全部一次性的災難損失。那可能意味著你避開會傷害你身體的事物。
你必須注意自己的健康。遠離可能導致您損失所有資金和所有儲蓄的事情。因此，請勿一次壓身家。但是對於上漲的空間採取理性樂觀的投入。
BOCTAOE(But of Course There Are Obvious Exceptions)
當然有例外
Nivi: I think there’s people that will try and build up your ideas, and build on your ideas, no matter how far fetched they might seem. And then there are people who list all of the obvious exceptions, no matter how obvious they are.
And fortunately in the startup world, I don’t even really get exposed to the people that are giving you the obvious exceptions, and all the reasons it’s not going to work. I barely get exposed to that anymore.
Nivi：我認為有些人會嘗試建立您的想法，並以您的想法為基礎，無論他們看起來多麼牽強。然後有人列出了所有明顯的例外，無論它們有多明顯。
幸運的是，在創業世界中，我甚至沒有真正接觸到那些給您帶來明顯例外的人，以及它無法正常工作的所有原因。我幾乎沒有接觸到它了。
Naval: That’s what Twitter is for. Scott Adams got so annoyed by this that he came up with a phrase, an acronym, which is “but of course there are obvious exceptions”, BOCTAOE. And he used to pin that acronym at the end of his articles for a while.
But Twitter is overrun with nitpickers. Whereas exactly as you were pointing out, Silicon Valley has learned that the upside is so great that you never look down on the kid who’s wearing a hoodie and has coffee on his shoes. And just looks like a slob because you don’t know if he’s going to be the next Mark Zuckerberg, or the next Reid Hoffman.
So, you’ve got to treat everybody with respect. You’ve got to look up to every possibility, and opportunity because the upside is so unlimited, and the downside is so limited in the modern world, especially with financial assets and instruments.
Naval：那就是推特的目的。斯科特·亞當斯（Scott Adams）對此感到非常惱火，以至於他想出了一個詞首字母縮寫詞，“但當然也有明顯的例外”，BOCTAOE。而且他曾經在文章的結尾處將縮寫詞固定了一段時間。
但是推特充斥著吹毛求疵的人。就像您所指出的那樣，矽谷已經了解到，其優勢是如此之大，以至於您永遠不會看不起那個穿連帽衫，穿咖啡的孩子。而且看起來像個懶惰蟲，因為您不知道他是下一任馬克·扎克伯格還是下一任里德·霍夫曼。
因此，您必須尊重每個人。您必須要把握一切可能性和機遇，因為在現代世界中，上漲空間是如此無限，而下降空間卻如此有限，尤其是在金融資產和保險方面。
Reference: Naval podcast scripts
